A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
